Anyone who replaced a system in Tampa Bay in 2019 and is looking at a quote in 2026 will notice four things: a refrigerant they have never heard of, an efficiency rating on a different scale, a tax credit that has disappeared, and a rebate that depends on which side of the bay they live on. None of it is a mystery once the dates are laid out. Here they are.

The refrigerant: R-454B and R-32, and what happened to R-410A

Under the federal AIM Act, the EPA’s Technology Transitions rule set a limit of 700 GWP (global warming potential) for the refrigerant in new residential air-conditioning and heat-pump systems. R-410A, the refrigerant in almost every system installed between about 2010 and 2024, has a GWP around 2,088, so components for new systems using it could not be manufactured on or after January 1, 2025. New systems now use R-454B (Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Rheem, among others) or R-32 (Daikin, Goodman, Amana, among others). Both are “A2L” refrigerants, mildly flammable, which is why the new equipment has leak sensors and why an A2L refrigerant cannot be put into an R-410A system or the other way around.

The rule originally also said that R-410A split systems built before 2025 had to be installed by January 1, 2026. That deadline was rescinded: an EPA final rule effective July 27, 2026 lets units manufactured in or imported into the US before January 1, 2025 be installed “until existing supplies are depleted.” So in 2026 a contractor can legally quote you either a new A2L system or a pre-2025 R-410A system from remaining stock. The R-410A option is often cheaper and is not a bad system; it is a system whose refrigerant will get more expensive to service over its life. The quote should say which refrigerant it is and why.

Your existing R-410A system is legal to keep and legal to service. The supply for servicing shifts toward reclaimed refrigerant over time, which is a price story, not a ban.

The efficiency scale: SEER2

Since January 1, 2023 the Department of Energy rates equipment on a new test procedure, and the numbers are called SEER2, EER2, and HSPF2. A given system scores a little lower on SEER2 than it did on SEER, which is why contractors sometimes quote both. The federal minimums in the Southeast are 14.3 SEER2 for a split-system AC under 45,000 Btu/h, 13.8 SEER2 at 45,000 and above, and 14.3 SEER2 with 7.5 HSPF2 for a split-system heat pump. Anything sold new meets those; the utility rebate tiers start above them.

The federal credit ended

The Section 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit paid up to $2,000 for a qualifying heat pump and up to $600 for a qualifying central air conditioner. It applied to property placed in service through December 31, 2025, and it was terminated after that by the July 2025 federal budget law. The 25C credit is not available for a system installed in 2026. Florida’s separate federally funded energy rebate programs had not opened for applications when this was written, so do not count on those either. If a quote or a sales sheet still mentions “the tax credit,” it is out of date, and it is fair to ask what else on the sheet is.

The utility rebates: which side of the bay you are on

This is where Tampa Bay differs from Miami. Hillsborough is Tampa Electric territory; Pinellas is Duke Energy Florida territory. The programs are different.

Tampa Electric (Hillsborough: Tampa, Brandon, Riverview, Carrollwood). TECO’s Heating & Cooling program has two tiers: one at SEER2 15.2 (SEER 16.0 on the old scale) and a larger one at SEER2 16.2 (SEER 17.0). It covers heat pumps, straight-cool systems paired with a new natural-gas furnace (propane does not count), and geothermal with a minimum EER. Ductless mini-splits are excluded. The application, with the AHRI certificate and the paid invoice, is due within 90 days of installation; the contractor usually files it and needs a vendor number to do so; TECO may inspect afterward. The amounts are on TECO’s page.

Duke Energy Florida (Pinellas: St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Largo, Pinellas Park). Duke’s Home Energy Improvement rebates have a prerequisite: a Duke Home Energy Check (Duke does not charge for it) completed within the previous 24 months. For an emergency replacement, the check can be done within 12 months after the install. Then: replacing an existing AC needs SEER2 15.2; replacing an existing heat pump needs SEER2 15.2 and HSPF2 7.5; replacing strip heat with a heat pump has two tiers, SEER2 15.2 and SEER2 16 (both HSPF2 7.5), and the higher one is Duke’s largest residential HVAC rebate. All work must be done by a licensed, insured air-conditioning contractor, and the claim is filed on Duke’s rebate portal. Again, the amounts are on Duke’s page.

Two practical notes. First, the tier decides the equipment: if you want the higher Duke or TECO tier, the contractor has to quote a system that reaches SEER2 16 or 16.2, which is a different price than one that reaches 15.2. Ask for both. Second, the paperwork is the contractor’s job; a good quote says “TECO rebate filed by us” or “Duke HEC scheduled,” and a quote that says nothing about the rebate usually means nobody is filing it.

What else moved the price

The load calculation. Florida’s energy code sizes equipment by ACCA Manual J and Manual S, not by the old tonnage. A quote that copies “3 ton” from the label without a calculation has not checked whether the house still needs 3 tons, and an oversized system leaves the humidity in the house.
The permit. A change-out needs a mechanical permit in every city and both counties, pulled by the contractor. For a job that needs only the mechanical permit, Hillsborough requires a Notice of Commencement only at $15,000 or more; added electrical or structural work can change that, so the permitting office confirms it for the actual scope.
The flood elevation, on the Pinellas coast. Flood-damaged exterior equipment replaced in a flood hazard area goes at or above the flood elevation required for the property (Florida Building Code, Residential R322.1.6); Pinellas County requires at least a foot above the base flood elevation for new and substantially improved buildings and cities can set more. A platform at that elevation and extended lines are part of that quote unless the unit already sits on a compliant one.
The ducts. If the system is out anyway, sealing or replacing attic ducts is the cheapest efficiency you will buy, and the energy code requires a leakage test on new duct systems.
Wind anchoring. Outdoor units are anchored to the site’s design wind speed, 145 mph everywhere in Pinellas.

What to ask before you sign

Which refrigerant, and why this one. Which SEER2, and whether it reaches the utility tier you want. Who files the rebate, and for Duke, when the Home Energy Check happens. The load calculation. The permit number once it is pulled. The license number, which for a certified air-conditioning contractor begins with CAC.

Sources checked and text reviewed September 18, 2026. Program rules change; the utility’s page governs.

Why a new AC costs more in Tampa Bay in 2026